Probability of Riding Over an Olive

What is the probability of riding over an olive lying on the road with a narrow bicycle tire? Regardless of detailed calculations, it can be stated: approximately the same as a hunter hitting a solitary mushroom picker from a couple of hundred yards away. According to Murphy’s Law, both probabilities depend on the benefit of the result. If the hunter hunts criminals, and the solitary mushroom picker is an illegal mushroom poacher damaging the forest ecosystem – the hunter will likely aim but miss him, but if the hunter is hunting a deer and the mushroom picker is a decent person who gathers mushrooms legally and according to the rules – the shotgun slug aimed for deer will surely find the picker and hit him. It's the same with a bicycle: if olive oil is beneficial to the tire rubber – you won't be able to ride over olive no matter how hard to aim - it’s just too small a target, but if it stains your new clean bike and can throw you off balance and make you crash – the wheel will certainly roll over it against all probabilities and your will.

Such pessimistic thoughts were penetrating slowly through the gauze into Peter’s heavily bandaged head.